Broadcast

  Interview | How reliable are population forecasts?
„Berlin is growing rapidly by 2030? Coffee grounds reading!“

Dr. Michel at »rbb-online« on July 8, 2015 on the growth forecasts for the capital:

„Senator Geisel […] said that in Berlin he no longer has to concentrate so much on the aging processes, but on the growth. In my eyes this is a fateful statement. I hope he didn't mean what he said. Because I can show a completely different forecast, namely that in about 15 years, i.e. 2030, we will have twice as many people over 65 and three times as many people over 85. We get a massive, alarming increase in the number of older and dependent Berliners. This is a very safe development, not a forecast, because these people already live in Berlin and will not move away anymore. […] Short-term developments over five or ten years can be predicted well. Everything else is coffee grounds reading.“

The whole article (PDF): rbb-coffee grounds-20150708

 ZDF news program »heute.de« on the internet: PEGIDA- January 7, 2015

ZDF editor-in-chief Theveßen explains the PEGIDA movement at »heute.de«: „Experts like the demography researcher Dr. Harald Michel speak of so-called multi-minority societies in which all population groups - ethnic or religious - are only minorities.“ This passage refers to statements made by Dr. Harald Michel from 2005. So these are not new insights.

The contribution of »www.heute.de« (PDF): pr-heute-de-pegida

 

 Radio interviews with Dr. Harald Michel from IFAD

 

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