Dr. Harald Michel
„Economic- and socio-historical Aspects
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Data sources for population statistics:
Pre-statistical period (written and non-written historical sources) and Statistical period (Census, population registration, updating, interpolation-extrapolation, microcensus), population forecasts (procedure of a forecast, models, cohorts-components-method)
Analysis of the population structure:
Age- and gender classification, sexual proportion, calculation and interpretation of age measures: average age (arithmetic mean and median), age load quotient (Old-Age Dependency Ratio), Support Ratio, Billeter-measure
Analysis of the natural population movement:
births- and death rates, natural increase, population balance equation, Lexis-chart
Categories of mortality:
(death rates, mortality tables: calculation and interpretation of the various Mortality functions; periods- vs. cohort mortality table, life expectancy)
Categories of fertility/Reproduction:
(Births- and fertility rates, crude birth rate (CBR), general fertility rate, age-specific fertility values, Total Fertility Rate TFR in periods and cohorts, gross - and Net Reproduction Rates CFR, NRR)
Analysis of the spatial population movement:
Definitions Migrant vs. foreigner/in vs. person with Migration background, population and flow variables, migration rate / migration rate Types of immigration; share of foreigners in the total population; share of persons with a migration background in the total population
Methods of historical demography:
History and sources, aggregative method, family reconstitution method, editing family tree tables
Students can use the basic indicators to describe and investigate the population (structure) and population movement (mortality, fertility, migration) apply and interpret and get an overview of the methods of historical demography.
PDF: Presentation und: IFAD Monday Round, 30 May 2011 (both links in German language)
PDF: Results and methods und: IFAD Monday Round, 23 May 2011 (both links in German language)
PDF: [pub-volkszaehlungen-in-deutschland] (link in German language)
Population history of Europe from antiquity to the present with special focus on Development in Germany since the end of the 18th century
Mortality- and fertility patterns in Central Europe
Migration in agricultural societies
The demographic transition as a result of modern industrial development in Germany from Middle of the 19th century until the beginning of the 2nd world war
New patterns of fertility and mortality, migration
The population development in the two German states from the end of the Second World War until 1989, Comparison: differences and similarities
The period since reunification and the current demographic crisis in Europe - Shrinking and ageing populations: Causes and consequences (Declining birth rates);
Migration processes and their effects: increasing or reducing disparities-
„Laboratory“ East Germany
The students have knowledge of the long-term causes, forms and perspectives of demographic Process of change (Declining births, ageing) in Europe and Germany.
The focus is on the economic and social implications and consequences of these developments at European, national and regional level.
Köllmann, W., Marschalck, P.
Livi Bacci, M.
(link in German language)
Origin and development of population theories and their effectiveness
Ancient Greece/Rome Plato, Aristotle
Absolutism with its mercantilist views of population Special case populationism, causes of its emergence J.P. Süßmilch
Malthus and Neo-Malthusianism
Classics: Smith, Ricardo, Mill
Socialists: Lasalle, Marx
Biologists: Quetelet, Spencer, Pearl
Optimum Theorist: Robbins, Cohen
Wealth theorists: Brentano, Mombert
Opinion theorists: Sombart, Wolf, Weber
Social-cultural theories: Mackenroth, Ipsen, Schubnell
Socio -economic theories: Coale, Easterlin, Zimmermann
Social-psychological theories: Birg
The students have knowledge üabout the genesis of the most important population theories of the beginnings (antiquity) up to the present, their explanatory power and their connection with the respective historically concrete socio-demographic framework conditions that have led to their have led to its creation.
You can use basic theorems of the individual population theories to evaluate concrete applying and interpreting population policies and assessing them in terms of their potential and Limits (effectiveness) evaluate.
Malthus, Th. R.
Michel, H. (mit Lischke, R.-J.)
Michel, H. (Ed.), Lischke, R.-J.
Süßmilch, J. P.
Population policy in ancient Greece/Rome
Mercantilistic-populationistic population policy using the example of Brandenburg-Prussia
Comparison of the population policy of the GDR and its effectiveness with political influence on the population in the FRG until 1989
Current issues of population policy in Germany Migration, births- and family policy, Regional- and infrastructure policy
Students can use basic theorems of the individual population theories to assess of concrete population policies and to interpret them critically and to take them into account with regard to their possibilities and limits (effectiveness) evaluate and apply to current developments.
In the process, current population policy developments in the areas of family policy are discussed, Immigration, labour market-, pensions- and health-/Social policy and spatial development/Infrastructure but also international/global aspects of demographic development receive special attention.
Students are able to develop demographic concepts at the federal, state, and local levels, demographically oriented initiatives by ministries and associations and similar activities of selected actors should be viewed critically.
PDF: The presentation und: IFAD Monday round on 16 May 2011 (both links in German language)
Kaufmann, F.-X. /Krämer, W.